Glasgow East By-Election Autopsy

When you wish upon a star, occasionally your dreams can come true. Equally likely is that it’s a giant fuck-off meteorite destined to wipe all human beings from the planet as it did to the dinosaurs. I made two predictions: one, that the SNP would lose (in spite of the fact I was supporting them) and two, that Solidarity would out-perform the SSP. To gauge my utter wrongness, you have to invent mathematics that go SO far into the negative numbers that mathematicians haven’t even explored those realms yet. Therefore, since my predictions were so hideous, I would like to predict that I’m not having sex this month. Not with anyone else, and certainly not with Beyonce from Destiny’s Child. Hey… if I’m on a ‘being wrong with predictions’ streak, I should at least try and work it into a positive…

Still, my utter shambolic performance in imperfect art of precognition is proof (if any were needed) of there being no such thing as future-sight. So the next time your read Katie the psychic in The Sun (or as I like to think of it “that concentration camp for your brain whose only meagre contribution to world history, culture and politics is what Keeley thinks of the headline they’ve thought up that day”) rip out the page and wipe your ass with it. Or if you’re a guy, use your right hand, and Katie’s face for something useful for once.

But, back to the East Weege By-election. Someone (Raymond) pointed out to me that if the SSP and Solidarity HADN’T split, and therefore if you added both their votes together, they would’ve outpolled the Liberal Democrats. A salient point, and a thought I’ll leave incomplete for obvious reasons. I will, however, quote Yoda, from Star Wars: “Fear is the path of the dark side. Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering.”

Yes, I DID just quote Stars War in relation to the nastiest split in Scottish Politics in the past five years. The big question is ‘Does this represent a feeling for Independence in Glasgow, and Scotland as a whole?’ I don’t think it matters if it represents Independence or not. I believe someone who believes in the Union is not going to vote for the SNP, but that’s a separate thing. What the by-election does is to publicly demonstrate dissatisfaction with the present Westminster regime and demonstrates a public genuinely wanting change. In Scotland, the only force who can viably get that is the SNP. And this bloody nose was broadcast all around the world.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/07/25/PH2008072501367.html

http://www.lemonde.fr/archives/article/2008/07/25/nouvelle-defaite-pour-le-labour-de-gordon-brown_1076984_0.html

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,24076095-5012749,00.html

And that was me checking only three out of the continents of the world. That’s a lot of people that just received an advertisement for the SNP, as sponsored by the voters of Glasgow East. For me, that’s the biggest thing, to see ourselves as others see us, and that’s as political activists on the world stage. This was the reason that the SRSM was so pissed off at the SSP during the G8 protests at Gleneagles. Then, they traded a chance to push Independence on a World Stage for every forgettable trendy slogan they had. And NOT independence. Maybe Tommy was too busy eating out an activist to attend THAT fucking meeting. We aren’t activists in our own backyards anymore, and we just highlighted Scottish Independence WORLDWIDE. Maybe if we’d done that a couple of years back it might’ve made a difference. If you don’t believe me, check the clustrmap that survived my recent purge. See the worldwide activity. That’s a lot of people around the world. And this is just one crappy blog. This win was witnessed Worldwide. Let me restate that for effect: YOUR WIN, YOUR VOTES, and YOUR ACTIVISM WAS WITNESSED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. And every activist should be proud of that.

But more than that, there were those of us (and I’ll hold my hand up to this one) who needed hope for the hopeless. Some of us jaded cynics were expected the “Ma granda votit wan way so ah wull tae…” mentality. Most of the doe-eyed newbies amongst us refused not to believe. And they were right! For once…

I think also some people feel a wee bit guilty about just being able to provide financial support. Whilst the main thing which won the election was troops on the ground, those leaflets didn’t buy themselves and those lamp-post boards didn’t pay for themselves, so I think those people who gave donations have reason to feel proud.

God… this is turning into another congratu-circle and I swore I wouldn’t involve myself in that kind of thing anymore… Still, a worldwide win is a big thing, so I’m reckoning it’s exempt.

Shut up. I already know that’s double standards…

Anyhoo, I think my only regret is that currently, we don’t have an imposing Goliath figure. We don’t have a Malcolm X or Nelson Mandela, much less a Che Guevara… Most of the brightest sparks are men in grey suits with glasses from Specsavers. It’s a minor gripe, I know. It’s just that I think that somewhere in the woodwork, at this part on our path on the road to Independence, somewhere lurking in the Shadows there is lurking someone who will write their name in Scotland’s history for the rest of time, waiting to make their mark on history with their contribution to Scottish Independence. Ever thought that the person might be YOU? No, this isn’t me talking to myself, but YOU the person reading this blog. Ever wonder if YOU were the thing which this movement was lacking?

Glasgow East By-Election

[sarcasm]First up... a minor irritation. If I have to look at this binty for much longer I'm going to start sending letter bombs to the internet company concerned...[/sarcasm]

I've been out campaigning twice during this election. First time was leafleting in Cranhill. I'm not about to put on my anorak for this, by the way. For the best political anorakyness in the McBlogosphere visit Macnumpty (as one of his comments duly points out, he's a political anorak par excellence, and on this occasion I'm not about to argue, merely reference the props concerned).

But... Cranhill. To me it looked like Saigon before Stanley Kubrick and Robin Williams turned up with two sets of cameras for their respective movies. Working class areas with these levels of quiet desperation seem to retain a semblance of dignity lost in Wimpey Homes or in Barrett Communities. And the one good thing about this by-election isn't the fact that it's giving the minority parties the exposure they lack the rest of the time when Newsnight ISN'T interested in either Solidarity or the SSP, but the fact that no-one can ignore the poverty in the East End. Aye, the main politicians are paying mere lip service to it, and aye, a vote for either Tricia McLeish or Frances Curran would make every voter in the East End a bona fide working class hero for decades to come, but it ain't gonnae happen. If you live in the world of political reality that circumstance has forced ME to live in, that means it's a straight two-horse SNP versus Labour. The backdrop is poverty. The inopportune resignation of David Marshall has provided a media opportunity for poverty akin to the murderous spree of Jack the Ripper in London's poverty-soaked Whitechapel, where there was more desperation than blood on the streets.

Interestingly, one unmentioned fact that you WON'T read in the newspapers, is that the HKF's (Hairy Knee'd Fundamentalists) have been out for the SNP. Yes, we are barred from Party membership; yes Alex and Nicola have to pretend not to notice the more obvious republican socialists and ultranationalists who are out saying: vote SNP... But we did and that's not about to change.

Speaking from a Republican Socialist point of view, one comrade asked why we (i.e. the SRSM) were seeking a vote for the SNP? Wasn't that like asking people to vote for the SDLP rather than Sinn Fein? One, neither the SSP or Solidarity have an armed wing (ceasefire or not...) and the SNP does NOT equate to the SDLP. Coming from an Irish Family I know how easy the transition from SDLP to New Labour actually is. It doesn't bear thinking about, frankly.

Being out campaigning for the SSP or Solidarity rather than the SNP would've been easier had it not been for the split. When Sheridangate happened, this was a deal-breaker for Republicans like myself. It was a return to 1980s-style "57 Varieties of British Socialism". We are NOT interested in that waste of resources. Unite, and we'll think about it. Split and the deal's broken. Once that deal was broken, the priority returned to getting Independence THEN Socialism. We can't get a Socialist Republic via Whitehall Supremacy. The civil rights of the Scottish People are far too much in danger to tolerate London-centric romantic nonsense.

Trendy left-wingers parachuted in from London like to slag off Whisky, short-bread tins, Jacobites, Covananters, Braveheart, etc and then proceed to try and tell ME how a London Based Socialist Solution is possible. It's like talking to creationists sometimes. "Jeez man... You don't believe in a London Socialist agenda? Man... you'll be telling me you believe in Evolution next..." And yes... we all know both Solidarity and the SSP have a pro-Independence policy, but without a UNITED FRONT, they could be singing Kum-by-ya for all it matters. And it doesn't matter whose fault it was, any more. It just matters that neither in the short-term can get a vote in Glasgow. Long-term I favour Solidarity over the SSP, to be honest. As soon as I read Solidarities missives on Tommygate, I knew it didn't matter whether he was guilty or innocent. This'll serve Solidarity well in the long-term. But for THIS election, the SNP was the only way to go.

Another night of campaigning, another River Island shirt road-tested. A pal of mine, though, went in full Siol t-shirt mode. Naturally this was the one night Alex Salmond was in the estate we were working. At one point, one of Alex's haircuts didn't notice the Siol logo and asked him if he wanted to speak to Alex... He flashed the SNP envelopes we were carrying and went about his business. This was in an ex-Council housing estate I hadn't bothered to ask for the name of. Inside my head I referred to it as Easternam or Carngon.

Oh... hold on. I seem to have waited until half an hour before election night was finished before posting this... Uh-oh. This means the Brits or the SNP can't use it against the campaign! What WAS I thinking! Oh well... What happened in Easternam, stays in Easternam.

In terms of the SSP and Solidarity, I would make the argument that this is a test of public support, as small as it is. It'll be interesting to see which party wins out. My eyes will be glued to THAT result, in particular (after Labour versus the SNP, obviously). I'll make a bold prediction and suggest the Judean People's Front will outdo the People's Front of Judea. I know... I didn't think I'd commit to an answer either... But take your jaw off the floor, I did...

Okay... Okay... I'll commit. I expect Solidarity to do better than the SSP. Yes, I think the SSP have the Moral highground, I just don't think the Scottish People CARE about that. I think Tommy has too much spin and too much political savvy behind him to lose out.

As for the SNP versus Labour, I'm expecting a slim Labour win. This is based upon my Airdrie and Shotts hypothesis. I convinced myself that Labour would lose Airdrie and Shotts at the General Election. A Labour agent said to me: "Karen Whitefield is convinced she'll win Airdrie and Shotts because of the strength of the Shotts Vote." As galling as it was, she was right. They did. Airdrie voted according to it believing it would lose Monklands Hospital A & E (and it retained it accordingly) but the Shotts votes were insurmountable. Maybe the SNP campaign was spread too thin then, maybe the Glasgow Fair issue will play into SNP hands... But it's a big IF. It's a REALLY big IF.

Over the weekend, I'll post my own personal post-mortem of the Glasgow East By-election.