Glasgow East By-Election

[sarcasm]First up... a minor irritation. If I have to look at this binty for much longer I'm going to start sending letter bombs to the internet company concerned...[/sarcasm]

I've been out campaigning twice during this election. First time was leafleting in Cranhill. I'm not about to put on my anorak for this, by the way. For the best political anorakyness in the McBlogosphere visit Macnumpty (as one of his comments duly points out, he's a political anorak par excellence, and on this occasion I'm not about to argue, merely reference the props concerned).

But... Cranhill. To me it looked like Saigon before Stanley Kubrick and Robin Williams turned up with two sets of cameras for their respective movies. Working class areas with these levels of quiet desperation seem to retain a semblance of dignity lost in Wimpey Homes or in Barrett Communities. And the one good thing about this by-election isn't the fact that it's giving the minority parties the exposure they lack the rest of the time when Newsnight ISN'T interested in either Solidarity or the SSP, but the fact that no-one can ignore the poverty in the East End. Aye, the main politicians are paying mere lip service to it, and aye, a vote for either Tricia McLeish or Frances Curran would make every voter in the East End a bona fide working class hero for decades to come, but it ain't gonnae happen. If you live in the world of political reality that circumstance has forced ME to live in, that means it's a straight two-horse SNP versus Labour. The backdrop is poverty. The inopportune resignation of David Marshall has provided a media opportunity for poverty akin to the murderous spree of Jack the Ripper in London's poverty-soaked Whitechapel, where there was more desperation than blood on the streets.

Interestingly, one unmentioned fact that you WON'T read in the newspapers, is that the HKF's (Hairy Knee'd Fundamentalists) have been out for the SNP. Yes, we are barred from Party membership; yes Alex and Nicola have to pretend not to notice the more obvious republican socialists and ultranationalists who are out saying: vote SNP... But we did and that's not about to change.

Speaking from a Republican Socialist point of view, one comrade asked why we (i.e. the SRSM) were seeking a vote for the SNP? Wasn't that like asking people to vote for the SDLP rather than Sinn Fein? One, neither the SSP or Solidarity have an armed wing (ceasefire or not...) and the SNP does NOT equate to the SDLP. Coming from an Irish Family I know how easy the transition from SDLP to New Labour actually is. It doesn't bear thinking about, frankly.

Being out campaigning for the SSP or Solidarity rather than the SNP would've been easier had it not been for the split. When Sheridangate happened, this was a deal-breaker for Republicans like myself. It was a return to 1980s-style "57 Varieties of British Socialism". We are NOT interested in that waste of resources. Unite, and we'll think about it. Split and the deal's broken. Once that deal was broken, the priority returned to getting Independence THEN Socialism. We can't get a Socialist Republic via Whitehall Supremacy. The civil rights of the Scottish People are far too much in danger to tolerate London-centric romantic nonsense.

Trendy left-wingers parachuted in from London like to slag off Whisky, short-bread tins, Jacobites, Covananters, Braveheart, etc and then proceed to try and tell ME how a London Based Socialist Solution is possible. It's like talking to creationists sometimes. "Jeez man... You don't believe in a London Socialist agenda? Man... you'll be telling me you believe in Evolution next..." And yes... we all know both Solidarity and the SSP have a pro-Independence policy, but without a UNITED FRONT, they could be singing Kum-by-ya for all it matters. And it doesn't matter whose fault it was, any more. It just matters that neither in the short-term can get a vote in Glasgow. Long-term I favour Solidarity over the SSP, to be honest. As soon as I read Solidarities missives on Tommygate, I knew it didn't matter whether he was guilty or innocent. This'll serve Solidarity well in the long-term. But for THIS election, the SNP was the only way to go.

Another night of campaigning, another River Island shirt road-tested. A pal of mine, though, went in full Siol t-shirt mode. Naturally this was the one night Alex Salmond was in the estate we were working. At one point, one of Alex's haircuts didn't notice the Siol logo and asked him if he wanted to speak to Alex... He flashed the SNP envelopes we were carrying and went about his business. This was in an ex-Council housing estate I hadn't bothered to ask for the name of. Inside my head I referred to it as Easternam or Carngon.

Oh... hold on. I seem to have waited until half an hour before election night was finished before posting this... Uh-oh. This means the Brits or the SNP can't use it against the campaign! What WAS I thinking! Oh well... What happened in Easternam, stays in Easternam.

In terms of the SSP and Solidarity, I would make the argument that this is a test of public support, as small as it is. It'll be interesting to see which party wins out. My eyes will be glued to THAT result, in particular (after Labour versus the SNP, obviously). I'll make a bold prediction and suggest the Judean People's Front will outdo the People's Front of Judea. I know... I didn't think I'd commit to an answer either... But take your jaw off the floor, I did...

Okay... Okay... I'll commit. I expect Solidarity to do better than the SSP. Yes, I think the SSP have the Moral highground, I just don't think the Scottish People CARE about that. I think Tommy has too much spin and too much political savvy behind him to lose out.

As for the SNP versus Labour, I'm expecting a slim Labour win. This is based upon my Airdrie and Shotts hypothesis. I convinced myself that Labour would lose Airdrie and Shotts at the General Election. A Labour agent said to me: "Karen Whitefield is convinced she'll win Airdrie and Shotts because of the strength of the Shotts Vote." As galling as it was, she was right. They did. Airdrie voted according to it believing it would lose Monklands Hospital A & E (and it retained it accordingly) but the Shotts votes were insurmountable. Maybe the SNP campaign was spread too thin then, maybe the Glasgow Fair issue will play into SNP hands... But it's a big IF. It's a REALLY big IF.

Over the weekend, I'll post my own personal post-mortem of the Glasgow East By-election.